Hongbiao ZHAO
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PhD Thesis    A Dynamic Contagion Process - for Modelling Contagion Risk in Finance and Insurance (2012, LSE)

Links   SSRN  -  ORCID  -  ResearchGate  -  Google Scholar Citations  -  Mathematics Genealogy Project

Publications​
  • Exact Simulation of Quadratic Intensity Models, with Angelos Dassios, Anxin Liu, Yan Qu
    ​- INFORMS Journal on Computing (featured article)​, 37(5), 1182-1201, 2025
  • Market Probability of Interest Rate Tick Movements, with Zhanyu Chen, Anxin Liu, Kai Zhang
    - Journal of Derivatives, 32(3), 140-187, 2025
    - Best Paper Award of 6th China's Youth Forum on Derivatives, 2023​​
  • A Model-free Lattice, with Ren-Raw Chen, Peilin Hsieh, Jeffrey Huang
    - Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(1), 30, 2025
  • ​Shot-noise Cojumps: Exact Simulation and Option Pricing, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    ​- Journal of the Operational Research Society, 74(3), 647-665​, 2023
  • Securitization of Assets with Payment Delay Risk: A Financial Innovation in the Real Estate Market, with Chao Ma, Hao Zhang    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Futures Markets, 43(4), 480-515, 2023​
    ​​- presented at AEA Annual Meeting, 2021
  • A Cox Model for Gradually Disappearing Events, with Angelos Dassios, Jiwook Jang, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 37(1), 214-231, 2023​
  • A Skellam Market Model for Loan Prime Rate Options, with Zhanyu Chen, Kai Zhang    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Futures Markets, 42(3), 525-551, 2022​​
  • Exact Simulation of Extrinsic Stress-Release Processes, with Young Lee, Patrick Laub, Thomas Taimre, Jiancang Zhuang    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Applied Probability, 59(1), 105-117, 2022
  • Random Variate Generation for Exponential and Gamma Tilted Stable Distributions, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 31(4), 1-21, 2021
  • Exact Simulation of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Tempered Stable Processes, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Applied Probability, 58(2), 347-371, 2021
  • A Two-phase Dynamic Contagion Model for COVID-19, with Zezhun Chen, Angelos Dassios, Valerie Kuan​, Jia Wei Lim, Yan Qu, Budhi Surya    [.PDF]    [.HTML] 
    ​- Results in Physics, 26, 104264, July​, 2021
  • Exact Simulation of Gamma-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes with Finite and Infinite Activity Jumps, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - Journal of the Operational Research Society, 72(2), 471-484, 2021
  • Efficient Simulation of Lévy-driven Point Processes, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - Advances in Applied Probability, 51(4), 927-966, 2019
    - presented at 10th World Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society, 2018
    - Excellent Paper Award of FSERM 2017​
  • A Generalised CIR Process with Externally-exciting and Self-exciting Jumps and its Applications in Insurance and Finance, with Angelos Dassios, Jiwook Jang    [.PDF]
    - Risks, 7(4), 103, 2019
  • Moments of Renewal Shot-noise Processes and their Applications, with Angelos Dassios, Jiwook Jang    [.PDF]
    - Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(8), 727-752, 2018
  • Exact Simulation for a Class of Tempered Stable and Related Distributions, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]
    - ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation, 28(3), 20:1-20:21, 2018
  • Efficient Simulation of Clustering Jumps with CIR Intensity, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - Operations Research, Financial Engineering Area, 65(6), 1494-1515, 2017
  • A Generalised Contagion Process with an Application to Credit Risk, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - 
    International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 20(1), 1-33, 2017
  • Simulation and Calibration of a Fully Bayesian Marked Multidimensional Hawkes Process with Dissimilar Decays,
       with Kar Wai Lim, Young Lee, Leif Hanlen    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Machine Learning Research, W&CP, 63, 238-253, 2016 ​
    - Best Paper Award, The 8th Asian Conference on Machine Learning (ACML),  2016
  • A Risk Model with Renewal Shot-noise Cox Process, with Angelos Dassios, Jiwook Jang    [.PDF]
    - Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 65, 55-65, 2015
  • A Markov Chain Model for Contagion, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - Risks, 2(4), 434-455, 2014  (invited publication)
  • Exact Simulation of Hawkes Process with Exponentially Decaying Intensity, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - Electronic Communications in Probability, 18(62), 1-13, 2013
    - featured by Wolfram MathWorld
  • A Risk Model with Delayed Claims, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - Journal of Applied Probability, 50(3), 686-702, 2013
  • Ruin by Dynamic Contagion Claims, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]
    - Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 51(1), 93-106, 2012
  • A Dynamic Contagion Process, with Angelos Dassios    [.PDF]     
    - Advances in Applied Probability, 43(3), 814-846, 2011
    - 
    presented at LSE PhD Student Poster Exhibition, 2011    [.PDF]
    - presented at 6th World Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society, 2010
Working Papers​​
  • Share-pledged Repos, with Anxin Liu, Kathy Yuan, Zhiyuan Zhang​
  • Correlation in Mortgage Defaults, with Chao Ma
    - presented at AEA Annual Meeting, 2019
  • Arbitrage-free Catastrophe Reinsurance Valuation for Compound Dynamic Contagion Claims, with Jiwook Jang, Patrick Laub, Ken Siu
  • A Supply-side Argument to Explain the Moment Risk Premia, with Ren-Raw Chen, Peilin Hsieh​
  • A Risk Model with Stochastic Quadratic Intensity, with Lingjing Zhu
  • Positive Stable Laws of Stability 2^-n, with Angelos Dassios, Yan Qu    [.PDF]​
  • Portfolio Credit Risk of Default and Spread Widening  
    - First Prize of the Deutsche Bank Award in Financial Risk Management and Regulation, £10,000, 2012, Newsletter
    - presented at 24th Annual Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, 2011
  • Contagion Behavior of High-frequency Trading in Future and Option Markets, with Peilin Hsieh, Yuqiang Guo​
Books
  • An Introduction to Financial Engineering (forthcoming)
Presentations
  • 07/2025    Invited Speaker, 3rd Joint Conference on Statistical and Data Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou
  • 03/2025    Invited Speaker, π​-Day Seminar on Financial Mathematics, Pinghe School, Shanghai​
  • 06/2024    10th Annual China International Risk Forum & 17th China Finance Review International Annual Conference, Nanjing University
  • 10/2023   Invited Speaker, Seminar on Finance, Department of Finance, National Central University, Online
  • 08/2023    4th Annual Conference on Financial Econometrics and Risk Management, Hunan University
  • 05/2023    7th PKU-NUS Annual International Conference on Quantitative Finance and Economics, Peking University HSBC Business School, Shenzhen
  • 04/2023    Invited Speaker, The Institute of Quantitative Finance, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou
  • 11/2022    Invited Speaker, International Workshop on Financial Econometrics and Risk Management, SUFE, Online
  • 10/2022    19th Chinese Finance Annual Meeting, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Online
  • 04/2022    19th Conference on Financial Systems Engineering and Risk Management, Online
  • 10/2021    3rd China Derivatives Youth Forum, Xiamen University, Online
  • 07/2021    3rd Annual Conference on Financial Econometrics and Risk Management, Mianyang
  • 07/2019    2nd Annual Conference on Financial Econometrics and Risk Management, Dalian
  • 04/2019    Invited Speaker, Workshop on Mathematical Finance and Financial Data Processing, Qingdao
  • 12/2018    Invited Speaker, National Youth Statistician Forum​, SUFE, Shanghai
  • 08/2018    Invited Speaker, Frontier Forums on Stochastic Analysis, Financial Statistics and AI, Xi'an
  • 06/2018    Invited Speaker, Workshop on Quantitative Finance, International Business School, Xi'an Jiaotong Liverpool University
  • 04/2018    Invited Speaker, Series Seminar, Shanghai Center for Math Sciences & School of Data Science, Fudan University
  • 11/2017    Forum on Financial Engineering and Risk Management, Sun Yat-sen University​
  • 10/2017    Invited Speaker, Conference on Big Data Statistics and FinTech, Fudan University
  • 10/2017    15th International Conference on Financial Systems Engineering and Risk Management (FSERM), Beijing
  • 09/2017    7th Annual Conference of Financial Engineering and Financial Risk Management, Hunan University
  • 09/2017    1st Annual Conference on Financial Econometrics and Risk Management, Nanning
  • 07/2017   Invited Speaker, 2nd Tianfu Workshop on Financial Mathematics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
  • 04/2017   European Financial Management Symposium, Xiamen University
  • 11/2016    Invited Speaker, Series Seminar, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University​
  • 06/2016    Greater China Area Finance Conference, Xiamen University
  • 04/2016    Invited Speaker, Workshop on Financial Engineering and Stochastic Models, Nanjing University
  • 03/2016    Xiamen-Tianjin University Joint Workshop on Quantitative Finance and Risk Management, Xiamen University
  • 10/2015    Seminar for Youth Researchers Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China, Nanchang
  • 07/2015   China Youth Economists Forum, Xiamen University
  • 07/2015   Invited Speaker, 3rd Asian Quantitative Finance Conference, Chinese University of Hong Kong
  • 06/2014    2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society, Xiamen University
  • 02/2012    Nomura Centre for Mathematical Finance, University of Oxford
  • 12/2011    24th Annual Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney
  • 06/2011    Department of Statistics, London School of Economics
  • 03/2011    Invited Speaker, Risk and Stochastics Day, London
  • 06/2010    6th World Congress of the Bachelier Finance Society, Toronto
  • 03/2010    London Graduate School in Mathematical Finance, London
  • 06/2009    Department of Statistics, London School of Economics

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